Attention: Mads and bads whining about Mill - Page 3 - Naruto

GrimFingers · #21 07-21-2011, 08:01 AM

I can still see people whining but whatever. n-n

HaKuYoU · #22 07-21-2011, 08:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by That Anbu Guy

JDragon,you sir have read my mind and perfectly stated what i wanted to say.

Thank you.

I truly now believe there are naruto players who have nothing better to do but sit on bandai forums and complain about nothing.(Its probably the water players.)

u taking a shot at me o_O HUH!!!!

Float Like a Bee · #23 07-21-2011, 08:33 AM

On deploy, Pakkun has at worst 26.42% base chance to trigger off himself, and that's if your opponent has not mulligan'd and got nothing but non-ninja cards. Realistically he'll have between 30 and 40 percent chance to trigger from himself, with between 54% (World of Fire on the low end) and 88% (T1 Chibi Fireball Jutsu) chance for a non-pakkun effect to trigger him.

Here's the thing. Pakkun can only ever mill X cards, where X is the number of non-ninja cards in your opponent's deck.

That's fine, except for the fact that every single card you mill that hits a ninja increases the chance overall that Pakkun will trigger, creating inevitability. Further, every non-ninja card you hit is one less option your opponent has overall, with missions representing more functionality in a deck than jutsu early, and vice versa late. Depending on decklist, most decks i've seen are either 10/10 or 14/7 (mission/jutsu) or somewhere in between.

The viability of mill is directly related to how heavily the format is tied to seeing or rather drawing specific cards; the more combo-oriented the environment, the stronger Mill will be as a win condition.

Aggro decks, by contrast, often need to see a group of cards, or any card of a particular type to win, being naturally more resistant to decks like mill. The major issue with this is that post-rotation the aggro decks are going to largely be less potent (i'd be willing to go as far as to say impotent in many cases) due to rotation hitting many if not most of the strong aggro cards. Shion (Awakened), Fuujin/Raijin, Surge, Might Guy [Passion], most of the 4/0 (other than Jirobo S2 and the new water/wind chick) T-0's, Shikamaru [Flex], Yakümo, Naruto [Clone], Rock Lee [Eight Inner Gates], et cetera.

What does this have to do with Pakkun and the rest of the mill deck? Honestly, I like Pakkun in the environment as he represents a different kind of mill from the -6 effect on Will of Fire; any effect that mills cards before milling half the deck decreases the amount of mill that ability represents and vice versa; half your deck being milled will decrease greatly the percentages on Pakkun.

On the other hand, Pakkun represents a strong component of a constant-mill strategy that would be quite viable. He has great synergy with World of Fire's first effect, and all the existing mill effects that are based around milling slowly over a number of turns. What worries me about this is the number of cards that are yet to be previewed, and if the theme continues to be mill, Pakkun is a card that can, because of the nature of his effect, only get stronger as more mill effects exist because he is not once per turn, and can trigger off himself. (Kakuzu [Akatsuki's Soul] comes to mind)

MJM · #24 07-21-2011, 08:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pyrot53

lol someone doesnt understand it...

lol.

Quote:

Originally Posted by That Anbu Guy

I truly now believe there are naruto players who have nothing better to do but sit on bandai forums and complain about nothing.(Its probably the water players.)

So what are you trying to say?

JDragon · #25 07-21-2011, 10:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nickuchiha

The first thing you learn in statistics is that none of it is accurate, at all. You can do all the math you want, and while it may be right every now and then, it is unlikely to happen exactly as you calculated it to be.

As a joke, after a lunch at Hooters with some of my friends, we took a wetnap package that had the following text: 99% of all statistics are made up. The teacher had to laugh, and he said it was partially true.

Actually, the first thing I learned in statistics was the meaning of probability, but that's beside the point.

Statistics is perfectly accurate in what it does - that is, it provides an expectation of the outcome. I mentioned that Pakkun will, on average, mill 0.66 cards per activation. Does that mean that it will always mill 3 additional cards every 5 times it activates? Of course not, probability is only a % chance of course - but taking into account all the situations possible, it's going to end up around there more often than not.

And by using statistics, I can tell you the % chance everything will turn out exactly as I calculated.

Quote:

Statistics is only wrong when you aren't taking all variables into account. Things like the stock market, dog races, and slot machines are all very hard to use statistics for in any meaningful way, but cards is another matter all together. There are no other variables, so shuffle a deck well and start trying the effect and as your sample size gets larger, it will get closer and closer to his numbers until they are spot on. (Even if it takes 10 million tries) the sample will always wind up equaling the population's numbers... (Great, I'm starting a math argument on the computer... I just couldn't help myself as a econ student.)

Actually, most of the cutting edge stock market techniques nowadays use statistics. Professional gamblers all use statistics as well. People who play the slots obviously aren't using statistics because they obviously don't understand what negative expected value is. :P